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[00:00:36] If you think 3,000 sounded insane, how about 40,000? Because somebody asked me, well, what would it take to set gold behind the currencies like we're seeing what's happening in Zimbabwe?
[00:00:49] This is the Debunking Economics Podcast with Steve Keen and Phil Dobbie.
[00:00:56] Well, gold investors are always trying to push up the value of gold, of course, perhaps because they've got so much of it themselves.
[00:01:01] But imagine a world where gold was used for coins and the only currency was coins made of gold.
[00:01:10] We've talked a lot in recent weeks about fiat money and money creation and how that distorts the views that traditional economists have about how the economy works.
[00:01:18] So are their views spot on if we had a coin currency based on the value of gold?
[00:01:26] And that was it. That's this week on the Debunking Economics Podcast.
[00:01:37] So imagine an island cut off from the rest of the world.
[00:01:41] I'm not talking about Britain since Brexit.
[00:01:43] I'm talking about a very remote island, miles from anywhere.
[00:01:46] It doesn't even know the rest of the world exists, a bit like America.
[00:01:50] But it is just in the middle of an ocean and they don't have any contact with anyone else.
[00:01:55] On this island, there is only cash, but it's all gold coins.
[00:02:00] So let's call this the island of Coinucopia.
[00:02:03] There's a million gold coins.
[00:02:05] The only way there can be more than a million is if the central bank mints more.
[00:02:11] But Rachel Reeves, her namesake, is the president of the central bank.
[00:02:16] She doesn't think minting too many new coins is fiscally conservative.
[00:02:21] So they only have the coins they've got.
[00:02:24] Nobody accepts banknotes.
[00:02:25] It's coins only.
[00:02:26] And nobody trusts each other on Coinucopia either.
[00:02:29] Everyone assumes that everyone else is up to no good because Nigel Farage has been the president on this island for a long time.
[00:02:37] So nobody trusts anybody, particularly foreigners, who they don't believe exists.
[00:02:41] So there we are.
[00:02:43] And the other thing is, Steve, on this island, anyone caught practicing double entry bookkeeping is sentenced to death.
[00:02:55] So yes, you don't want to be there.
[00:02:57] So it's a very simple model.
[00:02:59] When people get paid, they put money into the bank.
[00:03:02] The bank keeps it till they ask for it back, which won't be very long.
[00:03:05] They're just keeping it till they need it before the next payday.
[00:03:10] The bank isn't allowed to lend out money.
[00:03:12] Borrowing is only permitted between private citizens.
[00:03:15] So let's start with the very basic.
[00:03:17] In that scenario, we can ignore debt, can't we?
[00:03:22] Because it doesn't have any impact on...
[00:03:24] There is none.
[00:03:24] Well, yeah.
[00:03:26] I lend to you.
[00:03:27] And so, yeah, nobody picks up any...
[00:03:29] Well, I might be in debt.
[00:03:30] I might have personal debt to you.
[00:03:32] But as an aggregate, there's no debt on this island.
[00:03:35] Yeah.
[00:03:35] Well, I mean, that's actually a good point, that people can lend coins to each other.
[00:03:39] But you probably have a decent mafia trying to back up any loans that are made, so the rates would be really expensive.
[00:03:48] And then you could have coins, and that actually could create interpersonal debt.
[00:03:52] That would be effectively save as lending to borrowers.
[00:03:55] So that could happen.
[00:03:57] But there'd be no debt recorded at the banks themselves.
[00:03:59] Yeah.
[00:04:00] So, because, well, they're not allowed to borrow, lend out.
[00:04:03] So there we are.
[00:04:05] So in that scenario, no new money can be created, can it?
[00:04:08] Except for the central bank printing more.
[00:04:10] There's nothing that can happen to make more money go into circulation.
[00:04:12] Yeah.
[00:04:13] And in fact, this is actually a very, very, very nice little analogy, mate, because that is actually the foundation of the paper that introduced monetarism to the world, which was Milton Friedman's paper, The Optimal Quantity of Money.
[00:04:28] And he actually did pretty much what you've done just there.
[00:04:33] He invented a fictional world in which, in fact, he had notes rather than coins, but let's go gold.
[00:04:38] So we know we've got gold coins rather than pieces of paper.
[00:04:41] We're going to introduce notes later, but yeah, at the moment.
[00:04:44] But yeah.
[00:04:44] Yeah.
[00:04:44] And he said that in that world, there'd be a thousand coins.
[00:04:49] So I think it even shows the quantity, the same quantity.
[00:04:51] I know you haven't read the paper, so well done.
[00:04:55] So a thousand coins circulating in the society.
[00:04:59] And because, you know, the typical thing, you've been in a long-run general equilibrium.
[00:05:02] This island existed for a thousand years with only a thousand coins.
[00:05:05] All markets were in equilibrium.
[00:05:07] And then this is where the infamous helicopter comes in, and that is literally in Milton Friedman's paper.
[00:05:12] He says, let us imagine that a helicopter flies over this country and drops an extra thousand now and out of the notes in his paper.
[00:05:20] It'll be gold coins.
[00:05:21] So there'd be some cases of concussion, but, you know, progress does, of course.
[00:05:25] So they drop the coins out of the helicopter, and then everybody rapidly goes and grabs all the coins.
[00:05:32] And then they think they're twice as rich as they were beforehand, so they spend more.
[00:05:36] And what this spending does is it drives up economic activity, so people work harder.
[00:05:40] But they then find – and this is the typical neoclassical stuff.
[00:05:44] Oh, my God.
[00:05:46] There's no impact on productive resources.
[00:05:48] He actually imagined a world in which there were no capital resources, no capital assets.
[00:05:52] The only capital that existed in his model was the fictional capital, human capital.
[00:05:58] That's all he allowed for.
[00:05:59] Well, actually, that was the point I was leading to.
[00:06:02] So thank you.
[00:06:02] You fast-tracked us a little bit.
[00:06:03] But I was going to say the only way in this economy for the economy to actually grow is for money to change hands faster.
[00:06:10] Whether you inject new money into that makes people work harder or whether people just realize that they can work a little bit faster.
[00:06:16] And, you know, therefore they earn more money.
[00:06:20] And the productivity goes up.
[00:06:23] And obviously, you know, that keeps money out of the banks as well longer.
[00:06:28] The longer the coins – we've talked quite a lot about this, haven't we – that money moves slower when it's sitting in the banking sector.
[00:06:34] And even in this example, if the money's sitting in the bank, it's not out there in broad circulation.
[00:06:39] So that's not part of the money supply.
[00:06:40] Yeah, that's right.
[00:06:41] So things to do to make money faster, what could the chancellor or the president of the central bank, Rachel Reeves, do?
[00:06:50] She could limit how much money you can keep in the bank, for example.
[00:06:54] She could say you can only stay there for five days.
[00:06:57] What else could she do if she says, you know, we've got to get growth?
[00:07:01] You know, in this limited environment we're in, how could she – in a coin-only environment, how could she get growth?
[00:07:06] A good start is to be sack Milton Friedman because the mythical assumption he made at the beginning.
[00:07:12] This is – people – you have to read this stuff to realize how stupid it is because Milton set it up in such a way that there could be no increase in productivity if there are extra coins around.
[00:07:25] So if you had – what he worked out, he said he had 1,000 notes and people would hang on to 1 12th of – what they'd do, that money would turn over 12 times a year.
[00:07:38] So the GDP with 1,000 coins would be $12,000.
[00:07:42] And that's – he had a very high velocity of money.
[00:07:44] And actually he implied that from the ratio of GDP to notes in existence in America in the 50s when he wrote the paper.
[00:07:53] So he said a velocity of 12 of the turnover of these notes.
[00:07:57] We've now made them to gold coins.
[00:07:59] So with 1,000 coins in existence, the velocity of circulation being 12, GDP was $12,000.
[00:08:05] And the assumption which – this is the sort of assumption you make if you want to give an – impossible for the person you're discussing to to reach any other inclusion than what you want them to reach.
[00:08:18] And that was there's no – there's no capacity to change the level of capital in society.
[00:08:23] So this – if you –
[00:08:24] Okay.
[00:08:25] Even if you're talking about labor, let's talk about capital in a second.
[00:08:29] But say, for example, the money started to move faster.
[00:08:34] Everyone feels as though they're wealthier because the economy is moving faster now.
[00:08:39] The hairdresser, for example, is busier.
[00:08:42] There's more appointments.
[00:08:43] But the hairdresser still only has a limited amount of time.
[00:08:47] So even if you're just looking at labor, she's only got so many hours in the day to do people's hair.
[00:08:53] If money is moving around faster, people are feeling wealthier.
[00:08:56] She can't meet that demand because there's only so many hours in the day.
[00:08:59] So what does she do?
[00:09:00] Does she put her prices up because she's just trying to –
[00:09:03] Yeah, that's – again, you've jumped ahead there and that's very –
[00:09:06] You're going to get a top class in the Milton Friedman Sears School of Economics at this rate
[00:09:11] because that's what Milton said.
[00:09:12] That if you say there's no – if fundamentally there's only human capital,
[00:09:17] he left out the existence of physical capital,
[00:09:20] then that hairdresser can't go and buy a new pair of scissors because he's only got one pair.
[00:09:25] That's it.
[00:09:26] So if there's – let's talk in terms of increasing the money supply rather than velocity
[00:09:31] because his basic point argument was that the velocity of money is constant.
[00:09:36] And in fact, a major part of Milton Friedman's intellectual career
[00:09:40] was devoted to trying to prove from empirical data that the velocity of money is a constant.
[00:09:45] This is an essential point in monetarism.
[00:09:48] So we can knock that on the head straight away.
[00:09:50] You just need to go and have a look at any database of money velocity,
[00:09:54] which you can see in the FRED database.
[00:09:57] For example, you can see that it's slowed down over the decades.
[00:09:59] It's slowed down over the decades and it's extremely volatile.
[00:10:01] It goes up in booms and down in slumps.
[00:10:04] And actually, this is another very important point
[00:10:06] because two of the most rabidly conservative economists
[00:10:10] that gave us the current state of New York classical economics
[00:10:13] were Finn Kiddlund and Edward Prescott.
[00:10:16] And they both worked at the Minneapolis Central Bank,
[00:10:18] the Federal Reserve Bank.
[00:10:19] And they did...
[00:10:22] It's occasionally that when neoclassical economists
[00:10:24] just sit back and look at the data,
[00:10:27] they actually do good work.
[00:10:29] They're reasonably good statisticians.
[00:10:31] Sometimes they stuff up completely
[00:10:33] or happily volunteer some examples of that.
[00:10:35] But in this particular paper called Business Cycle,
[00:10:38] I think it's called Real Facts and a Monetary Myth.
[00:10:41] And they said that when they looked at the velocity of money,
[00:10:45] it was highly volatile, rose in berms and fell in slumps.
[00:10:48] And that is the opposite conclusion that Milton Friedman reached
[00:10:52] from his monetary history in the United States.
[00:10:55] So the way that Milton...
[00:10:56] But Milton basically cooked the books to find the result he wanted to find
[00:11:00] when better statisticians, less ideological.
[00:11:03] This is crazy.
[00:11:04] If I'm calling Edward Prescott less ideological than somebody else,
[00:11:07] Jesus Christ, is that other person ideological?
[00:11:09] So by doing the straight empirical work,
[00:11:12] they actually contradicted their own theory.
[00:11:14] And they said so in the paper.
[00:11:15] They said, we find these facts interesting
[00:11:17] because they contradict accepted theory,
[00:11:20] including which is their theory.
[00:11:22] So the finding that velocity is volatile
[00:11:25] and rises in berms, falls in slumps,
[00:11:28] and has been trending down over time.
[00:11:30] And of course, it's been trending down
[00:11:31] as private debt's been rising,
[00:11:33] which is left out of their thinking completely.
[00:11:36] Yeah, this is the fallacy.
[00:11:38] The first fallacy is, well, fallacy number one,
[00:11:41] there's no capital, okay?
[00:11:43] So therefore, extra money can't create extra investment
[00:11:47] because what happens in the real world,
[00:11:49] this is, you know, off your little island
[00:11:51] with Nigel Farage as the president
[00:11:54] and Rachel Rees as the...
[00:11:55] That's going to happen in five years' time, you realize.
[00:11:58] Yeah, no.
[00:11:58] Rachel Rees won't be there.
[00:11:59] You're going to have it.
[00:12:01] It's going to be...
[00:12:02] Yeah, this place I'm talking about is Britain, exactly.
[00:12:03] And maybe we will just go back to gold coins, exactly.
[00:12:06] But I'm wondering about...
[00:12:09] So, yes, you're saying that this idea
[00:12:13] that there'll be pressure on the workers to do more,
[00:12:17] but they don't have the resources,
[00:12:18] either the physical resources or they don't have the time,
[00:12:22] they would push their prices up, wouldn't you?
[00:12:25] You would have inflation in that situation.
[00:12:27] And this is exactly what Milton argued,
[00:12:28] and again, what he's done.
[00:12:29] This is something that Schumpeter beautifully described
[00:12:33] as Riccardian advice.
[00:12:34] He said that Riccardo had this tradition
[00:12:38] of setting up a set of initial precepts
[00:12:41] that only had...
[00:12:43] that forced the outcome on the result.
[00:12:46] So you set up a set of assumptions to begin with.
[00:12:49] Therefore, if you accepted those assumptions,
[00:12:53] there's no choice but to reach the conclusion
[00:12:55] that the author wants to reach.
[00:12:57] But the assumptions are wildly unrealistic.
[00:12:59] So in Milton Friedman's key paper,
[00:13:02] the key assumption,
[00:13:04] and I don't think he changed it throughout the paper.
[00:13:06] I haven't read it for some time,
[00:13:07] but I'm pretty certain he's stuck with this assumption.
[00:13:09] There's no capital.
[00:13:10] So if there's no capital,
[00:13:11] extra money can't lead to investment,
[00:13:13] which leads to more capital again,
[00:13:15] and therefore stimulates economic activity.
[00:13:18] Instead, if you have people who can only work,
[00:13:20] you know, the hairdresser's doing an eight-hour day.
[00:13:22] She wants to go and line that lovely beach,
[00:13:24] you know, the beautiful beaches you have in Cointopia.
[00:13:28] I've been to Brighton.
[00:13:31] I'm an Aussie from Bondi Beach.
[00:13:33] No, in my mind,
[00:13:34] in my mind,
[00:13:35] Cointopia is in the middle of the Pacific somewhere.
[00:13:39] Oh, okay.
[00:13:39] Well, I think they've got Sydney beaches with British...
[00:13:41] Sydney beaches and British government.
[00:13:44] That's okay.
[00:13:45] Okay.
[00:13:45] So you're along on a decent beach.
[00:13:47] So if you want to have an eight-hour to lie on the beach,
[00:13:49] they work eight hours a day,
[00:13:50] and then when these extra coins come down,
[00:13:53] everybody's feeling riches,
[00:13:54] or they're going and doing, you know,
[00:13:55] I want a haircut, you know.
[00:13:56] I was going to wait two weeks.
[00:13:57] I want one in one week now.
[00:13:58] So she's working twice as hard,
[00:14:00] twice as many hours.
[00:14:01] This is just not worth it.
[00:14:03] And ultimately,
[00:14:04] with the velocity of money...
[00:14:07] Hang on.
[00:14:08] I'm not sure.
[00:14:08] The velocity of money remains constant.
[00:14:10] But all you do,
[00:14:11] you put up your prices.
[00:14:12] You charge twice as much for the haircut.
[00:14:14] But you don't do that.
[00:14:15] So the only impact...
[00:14:16] I was going to say,
[00:14:17] this would only happen once, though.
[00:14:19] It's not a continual process.
[00:14:23] You're in a roll today.
[00:14:24] I mean, honestly, you really are.
[00:14:26] Because you're anticipating what Milton did.
[00:14:28] So the first stage,
[00:14:29] there's a helicopter that flies over the country.
[00:14:31] He says,
[00:14:32] everybody treats this as a one-off event,
[00:14:34] which will never happen again.
[00:14:35] So what then happens is,
[00:14:37] because there's twice as many coins,
[00:14:39] and only the same amount of labor,
[00:14:40] and you're only in equilibrium,
[00:14:42] you're very happy with the eight hours of the...
[00:14:44] You know,
[00:14:44] eight hours of sleeping,
[00:14:45] eight hours of ear cutting,
[00:14:46] eight hours of lying on Bondi beach.
[00:14:49] That's your preferred lifestyle.
[00:14:51] So when you have twice as many people turning up now
[00:14:55] for haircuts,
[00:14:56] you can't do 16 hours.
[00:14:58] You work for a while,
[00:15:00] because you think,
[00:15:00] oh my God,
[00:15:00] I'm getting more money for the haircuts.
[00:15:03] But the fact is,
[00:15:04] you've got to work longer to do it,
[00:15:06] and this is just not worth it.
[00:15:07] So you start putting your prices up,
[00:15:08] and eventually,
[00:15:09] the prices fall back.
[00:15:10] You used to charge one gold coin for a haircut.
[00:15:12] You now change two gold coins.
[00:15:14] So the price level rises.
[00:15:15] And then it sets in a new equilibrium,
[00:15:18] 2,000 coins,
[00:15:19] exactly the same GDP,
[00:15:22] different monetary GDP,
[00:15:24] but the same real GDP.
[00:15:26] All that's happened is prices have doubled.
[00:15:28] Then,
[00:15:29] ID says we need to play the drum.
[00:15:31] Can you do a decent imitation of
[00:15:33] Ride of the Valkyries?
[00:15:38] We know we're talking.
[00:15:40] For those who don't know it,
[00:15:41] we're talking...
[00:15:43] What's the movie's name?
[00:15:44] Um,
[00:15:45] not Armageddon,
[00:15:46] it was the,
[00:15:47] oh damn,
[00:15:48] the Vietnam War movie.
[00:15:50] I've forgotten.
[00:15:51] Were they flying over a Vietnam village?
[00:15:54] Oh,
[00:15:54] by the way,
[00:15:55] little announcement here,
[00:15:56] which I'm delighted by.
[00:15:57] Just a few minutes before you,
[00:15:59] we started recording this,
[00:16:01] the publisher of the New Economics
[00:16:02] and Manifesto
[00:16:03] told me that they've had an offer
[00:16:04] to have it published in Vietnamese.
[00:16:05] All right,
[00:16:06] excellent.
[00:16:06] So I'm absolutely cock-a-hoomp about that.
[00:16:09] So this is,
[00:16:09] the war movie we're thinking of
[00:16:11] is Apocalypse Now.
[00:16:12] That's it.
[00:16:13] Yeah.
[00:16:13] Apocalypse Now.
[00:16:14] So there's a scene where
[00:16:14] the crazy colonel
[00:16:16] flies in over the,
[00:16:17] over the,
[00:16:18] the water,
[00:16:19] the ocean,
[00:16:20] and comes into a Vietnam village
[00:16:21] and starts strapping
[00:16:22] and shooting everybody.
[00:16:23] So this is,
[00:16:23] you're not dropping bullets,
[00:16:24] you're dropping gold coins.
[00:16:25] You know,
[00:16:26] some cases of concussion,
[00:16:27] not quite as deadly.
[00:16:28] Okay,
[00:16:29] so the coins drop from the sky
[00:16:30] and there's now
[00:16:30] a continuous stream
[00:16:32] of helicopters
[00:16:33] and they're flying over
[00:16:34] and each year
[00:16:35] they drop 10%
[00:16:38] of the current level
[00:16:39] of coins.
[00:16:39] And so year one
[00:16:40] it's 200 coins
[00:16:42] because you've doubled it
[00:16:43] and then you compound
[00:16:44] and compound
[00:16:45] and compound.
[00:16:46] And he said in that world,
[00:16:47] people just get used
[00:16:47] to the helicopters
[00:16:48] flying overhead
[00:16:49] and their reaction is,
[00:16:50] so I'm going to put my prices
[00:16:51] up at the same rate
[00:16:52] of the helicopters
[00:16:53] fly overhead.
[00:16:54] So continuous government
[00:16:55] creation causes
[00:16:56] 10% inflation.
[00:16:57] That's,
[00:16:58] that was the basis,
[00:16:59] this fictional,
[00:16:59] what you've called
[00:17:01] cointopia.
[00:17:02] No real growth.
[00:17:03] And therefore,
[00:17:04] yeah,
[00:17:04] and he then argued,
[00:17:05] this is the thing
[00:17:06] that most people
[00:17:07] don't realize,
[00:17:07] his preferred situation
[00:17:09] was to destroy the coins
[00:17:11] at a rate of 7% per annum
[00:17:13] because he worked out
[00:17:14] what he called
[00:17:14] the marginal,
[00:17:16] loss of marginal utility
[00:17:17] having to carry coins
[00:17:18] in your pocket
[00:17:18] and basically,
[00:17:20] you know,
[00:17:20] basically the less,
[00:17:21] lower the,
[00:17:22] but let's think of the gold coins
[00:17:23] is a great example as well
[00:17:24] because,
[00:17:25] you know,
[00:17:25] you weigh a certain amount
[00:17:26] in your pocket,
[00:17:26] it's uncomfortable,
[00:17:28] you don't get any actual utility
[00:17:29] out of the money.
[00:17:30] So therefore,
[00:17:31] if you destroyed the money
[00:17:32] at a rate of 7% per annum,
[00:17:34] you'd actually get a higher level
[00:17:36] of social utility.
[00:17:37] And he finally compromised
[00:17:38] on a rate of increase,
[00:17:39] I think,
[00:17:39] of about 3% of the money supply
[00:17:42] for various silly,
[00:17:44] really silly reasons
[00:17:46] about utility of carrying coins,
[00:17:48] yada,
[00:17:48] yada,
[00:17:48] yada.
[00:17:49] So rather than actually
[00:17:50] coming down to say
[00:17:51] you should increase
[00:17:52] the level of money supply
[00:17:54] at the rate of growth
[00:17:55] of the economy,
[00:17:56] which is now,
[00:17:57] he's now conceding
[00:17:59] the economy might
[00:17:59] actually be machinery
[00:18:01] in this economy
[00:18:02] and you need more machinery
[00:18:02] to grow.
[00:18:03] But he wanted,
[00:18:04] he said,
[00:18:05] I think a 3% rate
[00:18:07] of money growth,
[00:18:08] something of that nature,
[00:18:08] roughly equal to the rate
[00:18:09] of real growth.
[00:18:10] But this is a crazy,
[00:18:13] crazy vision of the world.
[00:18:14] So let's continue.
[00:18:16] You're next to him.
[00:18:17] Yeah, we will.
[00:18:17] We're going to take a break.
[00:18:19] Look,
[00:18:19] because we're at the situation now
[00:18:21] because Rachel Reeves
[00:18:22] is a little bit concerned
[00:18:23] because she has put a bit
[00:18:24] of extra money
[00:18:25] into the economy
[00:18:26] and she's seen
[00:18:26] that growth happen
[00:18:27] but it's not perpetuated
[00:18:28] because she's not prepared
[00:18:29] to do it every day
[00:18:30] and she's wondering
[00:18:31] whether she should
[00:18:31] pull coins out
[00:18:33] and, you know,
[00:18:34] she's wondering
[00:18:34] how she gets growth
[00:18:35] because she's seeing
[00:18:36] no real growth
[00:18:36] which would be
[00:18:37] the situation,
[00:18:38] wouldn't it?
[00:18:38] She's obviously
[00:18:38] no real growth
[00:18:39] even though she's
[00:18:40] injected cash
[00:18:41] into the economy.
[00:18:42] So she's wondering
[00:18:43] how she can do that
[00:18:44] and she's playing
[00:18:45] with the idea.
[00:18:46] She's going to go
[00:18:47] and see.
[00:18:47] She's gone up
[00:18:48] to the maximum
[00:18:49] security jail
[00:18:50] where Professor Steve Keegan
[00:18:52] is sitting on death row
[00:18:53] for double entry bookkeeping
[00:18:54] and she wants to know
[00:18:58] what to do next.
[00:18:59] So we'll look at that
[00:19:00] after the break
[00:19:01] on the Debunking Economics Podcast.
[00:19:03] You dreamt of
[00:19:06] from the everyday
[00:19:07] to flee
[00:19:08] or the world
[00:19:08] to bereise?
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[00:19:32] capitalanlagerisiko
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[00:19:35] In the place
[00:19:38] am Potsdamer Platz
[00:19:39] findest du einfach alles
[00:19:41] von spannender Unterhaltung
[00:19:43] über erstklassige
[00:19:44] Einkaufsmöglichkeiten
[00:19:45] bis hin zu einzigartiger
[00:19:46] Gastronomie
[00:19:47] Komm vorbei
[00:19:47] und genieße besondere Momente
[00:19:49] in the place
[00:19:49] am Potsdamer Platz
[00:19:50] Berlin
[00:19:51] Alles an einem Platz
[00:19:54] This is the Debunking Economics Podcast
[00:19:58] with Steve Keen
[00:19:59] and Phil Dobby
[00:20:00] So Steve,
[00:20:05] another interesting facet
[00:20:06] of the small island
[00:20:08] of Cornucopia
[00:20:09] and you've touched on this
[00:20:10] a few times
[00:20:11] is it's got
[00:20:12] limited resources
[00:20:13] people have been
[00:20:14] burning trees
[00:20:15] to keep warm
[00:20:16] and the supply
[00:20:17] of trees
[00:20:18] is diminishing
[00:20:20] so far
[00:20:21] there's been no
[00:20:22] relationship
[00:20:22] between money
[00:20:23] and resources
[00:20:24] I mean money remains
[00:20:25] but resources
[00:20:25] are depleting
[00:20:26] so the cost
[00:20:27] of a tree
[00:20:28] might go up
[00:20:30] but I mean
[00:20:31] what happens
[00:20:32] to that
[00:20:32] if the cost
[00:20:34] of a tree
[00:20:35] goes up
[00:20:35] that money
[00:20:36] goes to
[00:20:37] whoever owns
[00:20:38] the tree
[00:20:38] and so it keeps
[00:20:40] circulating
[00:20:40] in the economy
[00:20:41] so hence
[00:20:42] the person
[00:20:43] who's got
[00:20:43] all the trees
[00:20:44] keeps saying
[00:20:45] well this is fantastic
[00:20:45] I'll just keep
[00:20:46] on chopping them down
[00:20:47] money keeps moving
[00:20:49] in this world
[00:20:49] irrespective of
[00:20:50] the natural world
[00:20:51] that's a bit
[00:20:52] of a problem
[00:20:52] isn't it?
[00:20:53] This is
[00:20:54] an important issue
[00:20:56] the link between
[00:20:56] money
[00:20:57] the money economy
[00:20:58] and the real economy
[00:20:59] and what I find
[00:21:01] crazy
[00:21:02] when I see
[00:21:02] that Austrian
[00:21:03] economist in particular
[00:21:04] or people who've been
[00:21:05] infected by Austrian
[00:21:06] economics
[00:21:07] commenting on Twitter
[00:21:08] about inflation
[00:21:09] they're basically
[00:21:10] any increase
[00:21:11] in money
[00:21:12] causes inflation
[00:21:13] now an increase
[00:21:14] in money
[00:21:14] causes inflation
[00:21:15] if no productive
[00:21:16] resources
[00:21:17] are harnessed
[00:21:18] or created
[00:21:18] by that extra money
[00:21:20] creation
[00:21:20] and that's bollocks
[00:21:21] this is the reason
[00:21:22] they can think this
[00:21:23] they don't realise
[00:21:24] they've got the Milton
[00:21:25] disease in their brains
[00:21:26] and they're effectively
[00:21:27] presuming
[00:21:28] that there's no
[00:21:29] capacity
[00:21:30] for the extra money
[00:21:31] to motivate
[00:21:32] the formation
[00:21:33] of extra resources
[00:21:33] and in fact
[00:21:36] we're going back
[00:21:37] from leaving
[00:21:38] Cointopia
[00:21:39] and going back
[00:21:39] to some other
[00:21:41] part of the planet
[00:21:42] in the real world
[00:21:43] when extra money
[00:21:43] turns up
[00:21:44] that is often a mean
[00:21:45] and again
[00:21:46] Schumpeter was probably
[00:21:47] the best on this
[00:21:48] argument
[00:21:48] the extra money
[00:21:49] enables people
[00:21:50] who've got great
[00:21:51] ideas but no money
[00:21:52] to put those
[00:21:53] operations into effect
[00:21:54] so Schumpeter
[00:21:55] and this is
[00:21:56] a bit of a fallacy
[00:21:57] in terms of how
[00:21:57] banks actually operate
[00:21:58] but Schumpeter's
[00:22:00] vision was that
[00:22:01] banks
[00:22:01] by creating money
[00:22:02] and this is the
[00:22:03] banks of the private
[00:22:03] sector now doing it
[00:22:04] rather than the
[00:22:05] government
[00:22:06] money was lent
[00:22:08] to entrepreneurs
[00:22:09] who had good ideas
[00:22:10] but no money
[00:22:11] with that money
[00:22:12] they could then
[00:22:13] buy some of the
[00:22:13] existing capital goods
[00:22:14] because in the real world
[00:22:16] there's more than just
[00:22:17] labor
[00:22:17] capital is not just
[00:22:19] human capital
[00:22:19] which was Milton Friedman's
[00:22:21] crazy abstraction
[00:22:22] there's physical stuff
[00:22:24] which you have to make
[00:22:25] but to say
[00:22:25] to make new machinery
[00:22:27] rather than scissors
[00:22:28] you make electric
[00:22:30] razors
[00:22:31] you know
[00:22:31] that's your
[00:22:32] technological idea
[00:22:33] so you're going to go
[00:22:34] from using scissors
[00:22:35] to make a haircut
[00:22:36] which takes forever
[00:22:37] to you know
[00:22:38] you run the razor
[00:22:39] over the head
[00:22:39] and the person's
[00:22:40] cutting in 30 seconds
[00:22:41] so you can do five times
[00:22:42] as many customers
[00:22:44] the person with that
[00:22:45] got that great idea
[00:22:46] has to hire
[00:22:47] the people who made
[00:22:48] the scissors
[00:22:48] because the scissors
[00:22:49] are capital equipment
[00:22:50] as well
[00:22:51] and then teach them
[00:22:52] how to you know
[00:22:53] forge steel
[00:22:54] and wrap wire
[00:22:55] around cables
[00:22:56] to make electric motors
[00:22:58] and then you've got to
[00:22:59] you know
[00:22:59] get that stream
[00:23:00] up on the mountainside
[00:23:01] and put a wheel
[00:23:02] inside there
[00:23:03] and the wheel turns
[00:23:03] and you've got to
[00:23:04] electric power
[00:23:05] and run the cables down
[00:23:07] all this is extremely expensive
[00:23:08] you have the great idea
[00:23:09] of doing it
[00:23:10] but you've got no money
[00:23:10] we go to the bank
[00:23:11] and you say
[00:23:12] look if I do this
[00:23:13] I can sell
[00:23:14] electric razors
[00:23:15] rather than scissors
[00:23:17] and you're going to
[00:23:17] farm more productive
[00:23:18] hairdressers
[00:23:19] and the economy will grow
[00:23:22] as a result of this
[00:23:22] but I haven't got any money
[00:23:23] and the bank says
[00:23:24] oh here's some money
[00:23:25] we're going to give you
[00:23:26] a promissory note
[00:23:27] which people will now
[00:23:28] accept in this island
[00:23:29] but also you owe us debt
[00:23:30] and now that is seeing
[00:23:32] the creation of private debt
[00:23:35] in this case
[00:23:36] and for Kwanzaa
[00:23:37] to enable growth
[00:23:39] yeah
[00:23:40] right
[00:23:40] but we haven't got there yet
[00:23:41] oh sorry
[00:23:42] I jumped ahead
[00:23:43] okay yeah
[00:23:43] but no that's right
[00:23:44] we're taking this step by step
[00:23:45] so we do have the issue though
[00:23:47] that we've got
[00:23:48] only so many trees
[00:23:49] on this island
[00:23:50] and they keep on getting burnt down
[00:23:51] to keep people warm
[00:23:54] actually
[00:23:54] this is a desert island
[00:23:56] so it's like Australia
[00:23:57] there's no waterfalls
[00:23:58] you've got to burn the trees
[00:23:59] to heat the furnaces
[00:24:00] to make the steel
[00:24:01] okay
[00:24:01] yeah
[00:24:03] or just burn them
[00:24:04] to keep warming
[00:24:05] your house at night
[00:24:05] because it gets cold
[00:24:06] in winter
[00:24:08] this is not the Australia
[00:24:09] I remembered
[00:24:10] no it's not
[00:24:11] no it's
[00:24:12] you know
[00:24:12] night time can get cold
[00:24:13] you know
[00:24:14] in this island
[00:24:14] but anyway
[00:24:15] money
[00:24:15] you're burning wood
[00:24:16] for something
[00:24:17] or you're making furniture
[00:24:18] out of it
[00:24:18] or whatever
[00:24:19] the fact is
[00:24:20] that is a resource
[00:24:21] that is getting depleted
[00:24:22] it's getting depleted
[00:24:24] with no impact
[00:24:25] and take your point
[00:24:26] that hopefully
[00:24:27] someone will come along
[00:24:27] and say
[00:24:28] well I've got a good idea
[00:24:29] rather than using wood
[00:24:30] we can do something else
[00:24:33] you know
[00:24:33] here's an alternative
[00:24:34] with what we've got available
[00:24:35] on this island
[00:24:36] here's a great idea
[00:24:37] about how we can make use
[00:24:38] of what we have
[00:24:40] and you know
[00:24:41] you need money to do that
[00:24:42] but until you get to that point
[00:24:44] I mean
[00:24:44] the money is changing hands
[00:24:46] resources are being depleted
[00:24:47] there isn't really
[00:24:48] a great relationship
[00:24:49] between the two
[00:24:50] is there
[00:24:50] no
[00:24:51] well in fact
[00:24:51] if you're talking about
[00:24:52] in a broader society
[00:24:54] isn't that a problem
[00:24:55] that we
[00:24:55] you know
[00:24:55] part of the problem we face
[00:24:57] that the broader capitalist system
[00:25:00] can carry on working
[00:25:01] irrespective
[00:25:02] of how much
[00:25:03] it's chewing up resources
[00:25:04] I mean
[00:25:05] it's just
[00:25:05] this is a very simple example
[00:25:06] of it
[00:25:07] well you've
[00:25:07] actually
[00:25:07] we've now jumped
[00:25:08] from Australia
[00:25:09] to Easter Island
[00:25:10] okay
[00:25:12] and that's
[00:25:13] you know
[00:25:13] you deplete the resources
[00:25:15] and suddenly they're gone
[00:25:16] and therefore
[00:25:16] the lifestyle you had
[00:25:17] beforehand
[00:25:18] is no longer feasible
[00:25:19] and like you know
[00:25:20] this is a jump in topic
[00:25:22] we've gone a fair distance
[00:25:23] from the initial
[00:25:26] you know
[00:25:27] coin type
[00:25:27] or abstraction
[00:25:28] but yeah
[00:25:29] economic activity
[00:25:31] values
[00:25:33] what you sell
[00:25:34] rather than
[00:25:35] what you deplete
[00:25:36] and that is
[00:25:37] the fact that we have
[00:25:38] a monetary system
[00:25:39] which only
[00:25:40] rewards
[00:25:43] economic activity
[00:25:44] and that economic activity
[00:25:45] necessarily uses resources
[00:25:47] and therefore
[00:25:47] can pretend
[00:25:48] unless you
[00:25:49] can renew those resources
[00:25:50] depletes the resources
[00:25:52] then you're on the road
[00:25:53] to ruin
[00:25:54] yeah
[00:25:54] and so they're on that road
[00:25:55] and so that might be why
[00:25:57] they need to
[00:25:58] invest
[00:25:59] to try and find new ways
[00:26:00] of getting their economy moving
[00:26:01] but let's just look at the value
[00:26:03] of the coins as well
[00:26:04] before we start allowing
[00:26:05] borrowing from banks
[00:26:06] which Rachel Reeves
[00:26:07] is coming around to
[00:26:07] very slowly
[00:26:09] so the value of the coins
[00:26:10] is based on
[00:26:12] gold
[00:26:15] but I mean
[00:26:16] it's meaningless
[00:26:17] on this island
[00:26:17] because
[00:26:18] all they know is
[00:26:19] this is a coin
[00:26:21] and as I said
[00:26:22] nobody trusts each other
[00:26:23] but then they get aware
[00:26:25] somebody
[00:26:26] they become aware
[00:26:28] of
[00:26:28] someone sees a
[00:26:29] copy of a
[00:26:31] newspaper
[00:26:31] sort of like
[00:26:32] lands on the coastline
[00:26:34] and it's got gold prices
[00:26:36] in it
[00:26:36] and they suddenly realise
[00:26:38] that
[00:26:38] you know
[00:26:39] the value of their coins
[00:26:40] if you added them all up
[00:26:41] and melted them down
[00:26:43] would be a lot less
[00:26:45] than they'd get
[00:26:46] for the gold value
[00:26:47] you know
[00:26:48] on the international
[00:26:50] gold exchange
[00:26:52] so
[00:26:52] all of a sudden
[00:26:54] their perception
[00:26:54] of how much
[00:26:55] their gold coins
[00:26:57] is worth
[00:26:58] is reduced somewhat
[00:26:59] isn't it
[00:27:00] so what happens
[00:27:01] to the economy then
[00:27:02] oh
[00:27:02] okay
[00:27:03] well
[00:27:04] in that case
[00:27:05] they'd like to
[00:27:06] try to build ships
[00:27:07] to take the coins
[00:27:08] offshore
[00:27:09] and sell them
[00:27:09] on the market
[00:27:11] you'd need
[00:27:12] but they're worth less
[00:27:13] they're actually worth less
[00:27:14] so they wouldn't do that
[00:27:16] they'd be a mutiny
[00:27:18] I suspect
[00:27:18] because they'd be going
[00:27:19] well hang on a second
[00:27:19] our coins aren't worth
[00:27:20] as much as we thought
[00:27:21] they were
[00:27:22] therefore we want
[00:27:23] I think this is actually
[00:27:25] getting away from the
[00:27:26] original idea
[00:27:27] but I want to make
[00:27:28] a little comment here
[00:27:30] because you mentioned
[00:27:31] I'm trying to relate
[00:27:32] the value of it
[00:27:32] you know
[00:27:33] actually what is the
[00:27:33] value of the coin
[00:27:34] is what I'm
[00:27:35] well this
[00:27:35] the value of a coin
[00:27:37] is a promise
[00:27:38] and this is an
[00:27:39] important point
[00:27:39] this is why I'm jailed
[00:27:40] for double entry
[00:27:41] bookkeeping on this island
[00:27:42] because most people
[00:27:43] think the gold
[00:27:44] the actual
[00:27:45] the value of the gold
[00:27:46] backs the
[00:27:47] backs the coin
[00:27:49] so they effectively
[00:27:51] think the asset
[00:27:51] is the gold
[00:27:52] okay
[00:27:53] and therefore
[00:27:54] the idea that you can
[00:27:55] have a lending
[00:27:57] of this stuff
[00:27:58] so you have an asset
[00:27:59] and a liability
[00:27:59] which is the promise
[00:28:01] somebody has made
[00:28:02] to repay coins
[00:28:04] they've borrowed
[00:28:04] that is seen
[00:28:06] as violating
[00:28:07] the concept
[00:28:07] that money
[00:28:08] must be backed
[00:28:09] by gold
[00:28:09] now I had this
[00:28:10] particular
[00:28:11] I've forgotten
[00:28:11] which some jerk
[00:28:12] on Twitter
[00:28:12] attacking me
[00:28:14] by saying
[00:28:15] really
[00:28:15] vicious
[00:28:16] quite vicious
[00:28:17] stuff
[00:28:17] it's unusual
[00:28:18] for Twitter
[00:28:18] I know
[00:28:19] but anyway
[00:28:19] attacking me
[00:28:21] for saying
[00:28:21] what's coming
[00:28:21] at that place
[00:28:22] saying
[00:28:23] he said
[00:28:23] what's the asset
[00:28:24] what's the liability
[00:28:25] and his basic
[00:28:26] attitude was
[00:28:26] that the asset
[00:28:27] had to be
[00:28:28] backed by gold
[00:28:29] so he wanted
[00:28:30] triple entry
[00:28:31] bookkeeping
[00:28:31] the gold
[00:28:32] itself
[00:28:33] the promise
[00:28:34] itself
[00:28:34] wasn't enough
[00:28:34] it had to be
[00:28:35] backed by a
[00:28:36] physical entity
[00:28:36] which was the
[00:28:37] resource of gold
[00:28:38] and that was
[00:28:39] and this is
[00:28:40] the nonsense
[00:28:42] that so many
[00:28:42] people get
[00:28:43] caught up in
[00:28:44] that they
[00:28:44] believe that
[00:28:45] money must be
[00:28:46] backed by a
[00:28:47] physical resource
[00:28:48] the old gold
[00:28:49] standard
[00:28:49] and therefore
[00:28:51] when I said
[00:28:51] the asset
[00:28:52] is the loan
[00:28:53] for the bank
[00:28:55] and the liability
[00:28:57] is the deposit
[00:28:57] and that balances it
[00:28:59] he was absolutely
[00:29:00] outraged at me
[00:29:01] and I was a criminal
[00:29:02] and blah blah blah
[00:29:03] I finally realised
[00:29:05] what the hell
[00:29:05] is this jerk
[00:29:06] going on about
[00:29:07] and what he really
[00:29:08] was doing
[00:29:08] was when you
[00:29:09] say that money
[00:29:10] must be backed
[00:29:10] by a physical
[00:29:12] thing like gold
[00:29:13] you cannot
[00:29:14] accept
[00:29:15] that assets
[00:29:16] and liabilities
[00:29:17] those two entries
[00:29:19] explain the whole
[00:29:20] system
[00:29:20] he thought
[00:29:22] there had to be
[00:29:23] as well as
[00:29:24] so you couldn't
[00:29:25] say that a loan
[00:29:25] by the bank
[00:29:26] was an asset
[00:29:27] of the bank
[00:29:27] and the deposit
[00:29:28] was liability
[00:29:28] and it's all over
[00:29:30] you had to explain
[00:29:31] why the money
[00:29:31] had value
[00:29:31] in the first place
[00:29:32] and it had to have
[00:29:33] value because
[00:29:33] it was brought
[00:29:34] back by gold
[00:29:35] and because I
[00:29:35] wasn't saying
[00:29:36] that I was a
[00:29:36] cretin
[00:29:37] and a criminal
[00:29:37] yada yada yada
[00:29:38] so this is
[00:29:40] tying up
[00:29:41] not realising
[00:29:42] that in a sense
[00:29:44] you think
[00:29:45] the asset
[00:29:46] is the value
[00:29:46] of the gold
[00:29:47] the asset
[00:29:48] is somebody else
[00:29:48] will accept it
[00:29:49] in full payment
[00:29:50] for a commercial
[00:29:50] transaction
[00:29:51] so even a gold
[00:29:53] coin
[00:29:53] is a promise
[00:29:54] okay
[00:29:55] if you exchange
[00:29:56] it
[00:29:56] you accept
[00:29:58] this
[00:29:58] in complete
[00:29:59] closure
[00:30:00] of any
[00:30:00] commercial deal
[00:30:01] like you know
[00:30:01] you buy
[00:30:02] your scissors
[00:30:03] off the manufacturer's
[00:30:04] scissors
[00:30:04] or you buy
[00:30:04] the razor
[00:30:06] off the person
[00:30:07] now making
[00:30:07] raises
[00:30:08] but it's the
[00:30:09] it is still
[00:30:10] effectively a promise
[00:30:11] and the fact
[00:30:12] that the gold coins
[00:30:12] are accepted
[00:30:13] is why you have
[00:30:14] commerce in gold coins
[00:30:16] equally in the real world
[00:30:18] the reason you have
[00:30:19] commerce with bank
[00:30:20] deposits
[00:30:20] if everybody accepts
[00:30:21] the promise to pay
[00:30:22] that bank liability
[00:30:24] represents
[00:30:25] when you
[00:30:26] when you transfer
[00:30:27] money from your
[00:30:28] account to my account
[00:30:29] that is a transfer
[00:30:31] of the promise
[00:30:31] to the bank
[00:30:31] to pay you
[00:30:32] to the promise
[00:30:33] to the bank
[00:30:33] to pay me
[00:30:34] and I accept
[00:30:34] that in full
[00:30:35] payment of whatever
[00:30:36] I've sold
[00:30:36] to you
[00:30:37] so fundamentally
[00:30:38] even a coin
[00:30:40] based system
[00:30:40] is a system
[00:30:41] based on promises
[00:30:42] I'm wondering
[00:30:43] because we've still
[00:30:44] got a bit to cover
[00:30:45] whether we should
[00:30:46] return to
[00:30:47] cornucopia
[00:30:48] I think we should
[00:30:49] yeah
[00:30:49] this has been
[00:30:50] spent half an hour
[00:30:51] yeah
[00:30:52] and next time
[00:30:54] because Rachel
[00:30:55] Reeves
[00:30:55] has spent a bit
[00:30:56] of time with you
[00:30:57] now and she's
[00:30:57] thinking about
[00:30:58] the high security
[00:30:59] jail
[00:30:59] how did I cope
[00:31:00] you fell asleep
[00:31:01] in the middle
[00:31:02] she just put it
[00:31:04] down to the fact
[00:31:05] you're getting old
[00:31:05] but obviously
[00:31:06] it's not
[00:31:06] yeah that's true
[00:31:07] I snore a lot
[00:31:08] yeah yeah
[00:31:10] but she is
[00:31:11] thinking well
[00:31:12] maybe we ought
[00:31:12] to allow loans
[00:31:13] and bank loans
[00:31:16] are going to
[00:31:16] happen
[00:31:16] this is the next
[00:31:17] installment
[00:31:18] on the
[00:31:19] island of
[00:31:19] cornucopia
[00:31:20] I think you have
[00:31:21] a book here mate
[00:31:22] I really do
[00:31:23] I think you should
[00:31:24] work on this one
[00:31:25] okay
[00:31:26] get your humour
[00:31:27] and economic logic
[00:31:28] rolling together
[00:31:29] that's next week
[00:31:30] on the
[00:31:30] debunking
[00:31:31] economics podcast
[00:31:32] good to talk to you
[00:31:32] sounds like fun
[00:31:33] good
[00:31:34] the debunking
[00:31:35] economics podcast
[00:31:43] you dreamt
[00:31:44] of the
[00:31:45] everyday
[00:31:45] to flee
[00:31:46] or the world
[00:31:47] to be
[00:31:47] reising
[00:31:48] that means
[00:31:48] that you
[00:31:49] wish to
[00:31:49] a unabhängig
[00:31:50] life
[00:31:51] you wish to
[00:31:52] invest in
[00:31:52] your future
[00:31:53] can help
[00:31:53] with
[00:31:54] iShares
[00:31:55] ETFs
[00:31:55] everyone can
[00:31:56] start
[00:31:56] with
[00:31:56] small
[00:31:57] regular
[00:31:57] payments
[00:31:58] to invest
[00:31:58] and this
[00:31:59] at 1€
[00:32:00] so you can
[00:32:01] achieve your
[00:32:01] future goals
[00:32:02] without a
[00:32:03] work
[00:32:03] of
[00:32:03] paper
[00:32:04] crap
[00:32:04] to
[00:32:04] be
[00:32:04] more
[00:32:05] time
[00:32:05] to
[00:32:06] dream
[00:32:06] find
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[00:32:07] with
[00:32:07] your broker
[00:32:08] or your bank
[00:32:09] and start
[00:32:09] with ETFs
[00:32:10] to spend
[00:32:11] capital
[00:32:11] risk
[00:32:12] marketing
[00:32:13] information
[00:32:13] if you've
[00:32:16] enjoyed
[00:32:17] listening to
[00:32:18] debunking
[00:32:18] economics
[00:32:19] even if you
[00:32:19] haven't
[00:32:20] you might
[00:32:20] also enjoy
[00:32:21] the Y
[00:32:22] curve
[00:32:22] each week
[00:32:23] Roger
[00:32:23] hearing
[00:32:24] and i
[00:32:24] talk to
[00:32:25] a guest
[00:32:25] about a
[00:32:25] topic
[00:32:26] that is
[00:32:26] very much
[00:32:27] in the
[00:32:27] news
[00:32:27] that
[00:32:27] week
[00:32:28] it's
[00:32:28] lively
[00:32:28] it's
[00:32:29] fun
[00:32:29] it's
[00:32:29] informative
[00:32:30] what more
[00:32:30] could you
[00:32:31] want
[00:32:31] so search
[00:32:32] the Y
[00:32:32] curve
[00:32:33] in your
[00:32:33] favourite
[00:32:34] podcast
[00:32:34] app
[00:32:35] or go
[00:32:36] to
[00:32:36] ycurve
[00:32:36] dot com
[00:32:37] to listen